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Bitcoin Price All-Time High This Year? Don’t Bet on It

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The likelihood of bitcoin price hitting a fresh all-time-high near $20,000 in 2019 is diminishing. | Source: Shutterstock

The likelihood of the bitcoin price surpassing its all-time high of $20,000 by the end of the year is a mere six percent. That’s according to data from Skew which tracks the BTC options market.

Bitcoin has found itself consolidating around the crucial inflection point of $10,000. And while most traders agree that BTC is now poised for a major break, time is running out to claim a new record high by the end of 2019.

Bitcoin price options Skew-data“>
The bitcoin price has only a 6% chance of hitting a new record high this year, according to options data. Source: Skew.

Predicting the bitcoin price with options

Bitcoin options are a derivative product used by traders on platforms like LedgerX and Deribit. They allow traders to speculate on the future price of bitcoin. A bitcoin option gives the trader the right, but not an obligation, to buy bitcoin at a certain price, on a certain date in the future.

For example, a trader might buy a ‘call option’ to purchase bitcoin at $20,000 on 31st December 2019. That trade would imply a strong bullish sentiment.

By tracking the open interest on options, Skew has calculated a 6% probability of hitting $20,000 – a new record high – by the end of the year.

BTC: the next big move is coming

Since the bitcoin price hit a yearly high of $14,000 in June, the dominant cryptocurrency has entered a period of consolidation. The price has now converged around the $10k mark and poised to break sharply higher or lower.

Unsure whether $BTC is bullish or bearish? Tired of getting chopped?

The next big move is coming, and once it’s set in motion we’ll have a clear trend to trade.

Here’s my straightforward, no bullshit take on the #Bitcoin market today. 📈 pic.twitter.com/P0uDoUV1cB

— The Crypto Dog📈 (@TheCryptoDog) August 27, 2019

“Bitcoin is at a cross-roads, consolidating in an ever tightening range since the $14k top in June. A big move is coming soon and provides an excellent opportunity for traders to profit following the direction of the next break” – Crypto trader and analyst.

Most analysts remain long-term bullish, but there’s always the chance BTC breaks downwards. In that case, as trader Josh Rager explains, there is plenty of support around the $8,000 mark.

Lots of debate right now about Bitcoin and whether it’s going to move up from $10k or break below $10k

IMO, It doesn’t matter

What are you doing right now to prepare yourself?

I’m certainly accumulating a small amount here but am willing to hedge w/ a short if price goes down pic.twitter.com/RoTY6aWGDi

— Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) August 28, 2019

Analyst Murad Mahmudov is more optimistic. He sees a “steady ascent” coming as the bitcoin price completes its consolidation. 

Expecting a steady ascent from here.

Expecting the Symmetric Triangle meme to transform into an Ascending Triangle meme in a Kafkaesque fashion. pic.twitter.com/NPlJTlA7A1

— Murad Mahmudov 🚀 (@MustStopMurad) August 28, 2019

Bitcoin price fundamentals

Of course, technical analysis is just one part of the puzzle. There are a number of major fundamentals on the horizon. 

On Sept 23rd we’re set to launch two physically delivered bitcoin futures contracts:

• Bakkt Bitcoin (USD) Daily Futures
• Bakkt Bitcoin (USD) Monthly Futures

Read more https://t.co/RO4XhrjFR6

— Bakkt (@Bakkt) August 19, 2019

Most important of which is Bakkt – the much-hyped, physically-settled bitcoin futures platform operated by the NYSE parent company. Many believe that Bakkt will act as a catalyst for institutional investment when it launches on September 23rd. However, it may also have the opposite effect if there’s little demand (or strong short demand).

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will also decide the fate of two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in October, though the chance of approval is close to zero.

Click here for a real-time bitcoin price chart.