WELCOME TO THE 7-YEAR FINANCIAL MARKET ITCH!
Looking back, the most recent financial crisis that we experienced was back in 2008. Lehman Brothers collapsed, the stock market crashed and we were plunged into the worst recession that we have experienced as a nation since the Great Depression.
The Dow – 1999 To The Present
Prior to that, the last time that the stock market experienced a major decline of that nature was during the bursting of the dotcom bubble seven years earlier. 2001 was a year of recession for the U.S. economy and of big trouble for stocks.
And oh yea, a little event is known as “9/11″ happened that year.
Seven years before that, in 1994, investors experienced the worst bond market of their lifetimes.
The following is how Reuters recalls the carnage…
“The 1994 bond market massacre is remembered with horror by those who lived through it. Yields on 30-year Treasuries jumped some 200 basis points in the first nine months of the year, hammering investors and financial firms, not to mention thrusting Mexico into crisis and bankrupting Orange County.”
Going back another seven years brings us to 1987.
Anyone that lived through that era remembers “Black Monday” and the horrible stock market crash very well.
The next major economic crash prior to 1987 was in the early 1980s.
In 1980, the S&L crisis was blooming and everyone was talking about the “stagflation” that we were experiencing under Jimmy Carter. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates dramatically to combat inflation, and this helped precipitate the very deep recession that we experienced early in Ronald Reagan’s first term.
Seven years prior to 1980 brings us to 1973. Too many young Americans, that year does not have any significance, but older Americans remember the Arab oil embargo and the super long lines at the gas pumps really well.
In addition, a recession began in 1973 which ended up stretching all the way until 1975.
And those that have studied these things say that the pattern keeps going back all the way to the Great Depression. Many correctly point out that the stock market crash which began the Great Depression was in 1929, but actually, the worst year for the stock market during the Great Depression was in 1931. And 1931 fits perfectly into the cycle.
So we have this pattern of economic crashes (itch) occurring approximately every seven years.
That record stood for seven years until the massive stock market crash of September 29, 2008.
Will the pattern hold up in 2015?